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Gambian President Yahya Jammeh has held the office since 1996
(EPA)
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(Aljazeera) On November 24 the people of The Gambia will decide who rules their country for the next five years.
Yahya AJJ Jammeh, the incumbent and leader of the Alliance for
Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) party, is being
challenged by two opposition candidates: United Democratic Party (UDP)
leader Ousainou Darboe, and an independent candidate, Hamat NK Bah,
whose candidacy is backed by four opposition parties collectively called
"the United Front".
The electoral system in The Gambia is the "first past the post
system", in which a candidate getting a simple majority of votes wins
the election. Almost 800,000 people are eligible to vote in 1,301
polling stations nationwide. The Gambia's Independent Electoral
Commission (IEC) will start announcing the results on Thursday night,
but the final result is expected around midday on Friday.
Who is expected to win?
Jammeh is widely believed to be the favourite to win a consecutive
fourth term of office, having won every election since 1996 when his
military-turned-civilian government won the first election under the
Second Republic. Most observers believe President Jammeh is certain to
remain in power regardless of the outcome of the elections.
Ousainou Darboe, 62, is running against Jammeh for the fourth time.
It is his last chance to unseat Jammeh, since age is no longer on his
side. The electoral laws of the country state that no candidate older
than 65 can run for the presidency and by 2016, the year that the
next presidential election will be held, Darboe will be over the age
limit.
Hamat NK Bah, who is running against Jammeh for the third time, is
standing as an independent candidate backed by four opposition parties,
including the National Reconciliation Party (NRP), the People's
Democratic Organisation for Independence and Socialism (PDOIS), the
National Alliance for Democracy and Development (NADD), and the Gambia
Party for Democracy and Progress (GPDP).
This "United Front" was formed following the signing of a Memorandum
of Understanding between the parties. A convention was held among them
and Mr Bah was eventually elected to lead the grouping. Under the
agreement, Bah will resign from his party 24 hours before the nomination
and run as an independent, in what Bah said was a move that would
enable him "to effectively lead the United Front".
"Anyone who wants to destroy the peace we have here, I will destroy you."
- Gambian President Yahya Jammeh
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Campaigning will end Wednesday, November 23 by midnight. But
opposition parties and candidates have lamented the short period allowed
for campaigning, which they described as "very inadequate" for them to
tour the length and breadth of the country. The IEC only gave 11 days to
the political parties to officially campaign. Since mid-2011, the IEC
refused to pay heed to calls by the opposition to extend the campaign
period.
The campaign started amid a "cloud of fear" amongst Gambians,
including human rights defenders. "The peace of this country will not be
destroyed at the altar of elections," Jammeh said on November 10, when
submitting his nomination papers. His comments followed widespread
comments that an "Ivory Coast-type election standoff" is imminent in
this year's elections. He declared: "Anyone who wants to do it will not
witness it. Anyone who wants to destroy the peace we have here, I will
destroy you." Jammeh has since refused to recognise Alassane Ouattara as
the winner of the Ivory Coast elections and as the legitimate leader of
that country.
Jammeh also declared that "no Western election observer" will be
allowed into The Gambia come the next presidential election in 2016, in
reaction to Western bodies like the European Commission's non-funding of
the current election. Apart from $100,000 given to the IEC by the UN
Development Programme's country office, the Gambian government is solely
funding this year's election.
Jammeh's compatriots Mr Darboe and Mr Bah have vowed not to allow
militants affiliated with the ruling party to interfere with their
campaign programme, as had occurred in 2006. "If you could remember in
2006, I was held hostage for four hours in my house," laments Darboe,
who said that at the time he was held hostage, he contacted IEC Chairman
Alhaji Mustapha L Carayol by telephone. Carayol said he could do
nothing about it. "That will not be allowed this time and I want you to
take charge," Darboe said.
This tiny West African country has had a bad human rights record
since 1994, when Jammeh overthrew the government of Sir Dawda Kairaba
Jawara. Since then, the order of the days has been harassment, arrest,
detention, killings, bogus charges and sentencing journalists and
perceived political opponents. This year, the issue of human rights is
at the heart of the opposition camp's political agenda, with the United
Front adopting a Mandinka (local language) slogan: "Mo beh balou" -
meaning "All should live".
Development plans
President Jammeh, a well-known hardliner, has adopted a rather soft
tone this time, saying, "I can't force anyone to vote for me". He urged
his militants not to do anything stupid to the opposition during the
campaign period. He promised to fix the erratic and unreliable power
supply in the country, and to improve the country's declining
agriculture sector. He also plans to build more infrastructure, although
his opponents have criticised some previous such infrastructure
projects as "useless".
Jammeh had vowed not to campaign this time. But he came to fear that
sitting down could damage his political aspirations, and has since gone
canvassing for votes. He says his mother had asked him to embark on a
"thank you tour" to his supporters.
Mr Darboe, who is considered to be the main opposition
leader, promises to fix the country's "bad" economy if elected into
office on November 24. He has also promised in his party's manifesto to
exercise the rule of law, which he called "a travesty" under the Jammeh
regime.
With the country listed as one of the world's highly-indebted poor
countries (HIPC), Mr Darboe added: "I will alleviate the rising rate of
poverty and enhanced agriculture" which has long been the backbone of
The Gambia's economy.
Mr Bah promises to make housing affordable to all Gambians if he is
elected to occupy the country's top seat. "The first phase of this
housing scheme will have 20,000 houses built for civil servants and the
military," he explained, pledging to create more job opportunities to
absorb the many frustrated young Gambians "who have been left hopeless
by the current APRC regime".
Will the election be competitive?
The opposition has been projected to stand a slim chance of unseating
President Jammeh after talks of an all-opposition coalition failed in
September 2011. Nevertheless, the election is still expected to be
competitive, based on the widespread belief that many Gambian "silent
voters" who have suffered repression under the Jammeh regime, and the
majority of unemployed citizens, will not vote for him - but this
remains uncertain.
IEC Chairman Carayol was hand-picked by President Jammeh to replace
the sacked former chairman, Gibril J Roberts. Thus, opposition parties
and independent observers have cast doubt on the election body's
impartiality.
Election observers have always pronounced Gambian elections to be free and fair, even if it they have not seemed to be so.
"Commonwealth Expert Team will observe the presidential elections due
to take place on November 24, 2011 in The Gambia, Commonwealth
Secretary-General Kamalesh Sharma announced on Thursday. The Team, which
has been constituted at the invitation of the IEC, and following a
recent high-level political assessment mission to The Gambia led by
Deputy Secretary-General Mmasekgoa Masire-Mwamba, arrived in the Gambian
capital of Banjul on Monday.
What's next?
The campaign has been largely peaceful, with no reports of clashes
between rival parties or the harassment of journalists, as has been the
case in previous elections. The election, too, is expected to pass
peacefully.
If President Jammeh wins, a "big cabinet reshuffle" is expected.
Jammeh is reportedly unhappy with some of his cabinet members, including
the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Edward Gomez. In 2006,
Gambian journalist "Chief" Ebrima B Manneh was arrested, and has not
been seen since. Jammeh said in March 2011 that Manneh is "dead";
however, earlier this month, Gomez contradicted Jammeh when he told a
local newspaper in Banjul that "'Chief' is alive and somewhere".
Both Jammeh's and Gomez's comments raised international concerns: The
US-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), the International
Federation of Journalists (IFJ), and the Federation of African
Journalists (FAJ) called on Jammeh to clear the doubts over Chief's
whereabouts. However, Jammeh has since kept mute over the issue.
There are also fears that, like Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo, Mr
Jammeh is "likely" to cling onto power if the opposition is declared
winners of the election, bringing unrest. However, a majority of
observers and analysts are not forecasting this just yet.
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