The Gambia will see a slight increase in real GDP growth this year, according to a new forecast by market analyst, Fitch Solutions, published in July.
“We forecast that real GDP growth in The Gambia will accelerate slightly from an estimated 5.3% in 2024 to 5.7% in 2025, before moderating to 5.3% in 2026,” the firm stated in its The Gambia Country Risk Report 2025.
Economic growth is expected to be "driven by strong consumption and export activity, as record inbound remittances and tourist arrivals in The Gambia boost economic activity.”
“This sees The Gambia retain its status as a regional outperformer, beating our 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) growth forecast of 3.7%,” Fitch Solutions said.
Gambia’s Central Bank, however, forecast economic growth at 6.5% in 2025 underpinned by improved business sentiment, public infrastructure development, tourism, financial services and telecommunications, according to its latest MPC.
Gambia saw 227, 000 tourist arrivals last year, the closest to its pre-pandemic record of 235,789 in 2019. The West Africa nation projects a positive outlook with a further increase in the number of visitors next year as it targets 336, 787 arrivals by air in 2027.
The country has also received a significant increase in remittances from overseas workers last year as transfers rose 4% to $776 million in 2024, equivalent to 31.5% of the nation’s gross domestic product.
Fitch Solutions said the Gambia's minute share of trade with the US will keep the market insulated from rising US trade protectionism, and does not expect that rising global trade tensions will measurably impact the country's growth outlook.
It however forecast that risks of social unrest in The Gambia will remain elevated in 2025, and that despite modest improvements in macroeconomic conditions, concerns over narrowing political space and lack of progress tackling the legacy of human rights abuses committed under the previous government headed by Yahya Jammeh will persist.
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