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| Gambian Women at Serrekunda Market (Photo Credit: Access Gambia) |
After a year enmesh in drought, very poor harvest, and hunger, think-tanks have
announced economic activity is improving in the West African nation of The
Gambia.
Majority of her people suffered a food crisis in 2011 following a total crop failure that was blamed on erratic rains.
Though talks of a “bumper harvest” could be lowered as it may not be as bumper as being claimed – life is slowly coming back to normal as the agriculture sector recovers.
An
International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to The Gambia said economic activity
in The Gambia has picked up in recent months with the beginning of the
agricultural harvest and tourism seasons.
Based
on preliminary indicators, crop production is expected to increase by roughly
20-30 percent this year, while tourism continues to expand at a strong pace,
mission chief Mr. David Dun said on December 10, 2012.
“Although the increase in crop production is
weaker than was previously estimated, owing to damage caused by prolonged heavy
rains, the harvest marks a solid initial rebound from last year’s severe crop
failure,” Mr. Dun observed during the visit from December 3-7.
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| Gambian women and children were the most vulnerable at the height of the food crisis. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
The
IMF mission estimates that economic growth in The Gambia could reach about 2-3
percent in 2012, rising to 8-9 percent in 2013 as the agricultural sector
recovers further. However, it said these estimates will be revisited in the
coming months with a broader analysis of economic developments.
Meanwhile,
inflation is projected to remain relatively modest at around 5 percent
(year-on-year).
He
said: “The mission welcomes continued progress in gradually reducing government
borrowing needs. The 2013 budget submitted to the National Assembly would
reduce new domestic borrowing to about 1 percent of GDP next year, which is
expected to ease pressure on interest rates and eventually generate fiscal
savings.
“The
imminent introduction of the new VAT in January 2013 is a key step toward
modernizing The Gambia’s tax system and rebuilding the revenue base.
"In
the banking sector, the upcoming increase in the minimum capital requirement
will enhance stability. The mission commends the CBG for managing this
important measure in a transparent manner.
“The
mission looks forward to continued good progress by the Gambian authorities on
implementing a sound macroeconomic policy framework, which will facilitate
concluding discussions under the first review of The Gambia’s arrangement under
the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility.”
Written by Modou S. Joof
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